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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

July 26, 2011 Severe Weather in Southern New England

Good evening everybody.

Tuesday turned out to be a fairly active severe weather day, one that wasn't really expected just a day prior due to the possibility of abundant cloud cover and meager lapse rates (where the temperature decreases with height, presence of lift is critical in thunderstorm development!), both of which would have tempered the level of instability.  However, many of us were able to break out of the clouds today, which increased the instability out ahead of a cold front.  This was the first step in the development of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.  Southern New England was located under an impressive 60 to 70 knot jet, in the left exit region of the jet streak.  While low level shear wasn't exactly impressive, it was sufficient enough to result in several rotating supercells, some of which triggered tornado warnings in both Connecticut and Massachusetts during the late afternoon hours.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the entire state of Vermont, Berkshire county in Massachusetts, Litchfield county in Connecticut, Northwestern New Hampshire, most of Eastern New York, and Northeastern Pennsylvania at 11:30AM EDT as storms began to erupt in Central New York in response to increasing instability.  Several warnings were issued, including a tornado warning for the Ithaca, NY area.  A tornado would later be reported in the Franklin Springs vicinity.

As these storms intensified further in the increasing instability across New England (though it never reached impressive levels), the Storm Prediction Center issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the rest of Connecticut, Kent & Providence counties in Rhode Island, Massachusetts excluding points South of Boston, Southern and Eastern New Hampshire, and Western Maine around 2:30PM EDT.  Large hail and damaging winds were expected to be the main threats within both severe weather watches.

No tornado has officially been confirmed by the National Weather Service in New England.  While a tornado was reported in Franklin Springs, New York early on in the afternoon, it appears at this time that Western Massachusetts and Northeastern Connecticut were hit the hardest by these storms.  A tornado warning was issued for the Connecticut River Valley in Massachusetts, near Springfield (sound familiar?) around 4:30PM EDT.  Several reports of funnel clouds resulted during the duration of this warning, including in Monson, MA (a town devastated by the June 1 tornado).

This storm continued southeast into the Quiet Corner of Connecticut, and around 4:50PM EDT a tornado warning was issued for both Tolland and Windham counties.  Here, strong rotation prevailed on radar for at least a half hour.  Even as these supercells merged into a bowing line, weak rotation was reported within the storms in Willimantic and Mansfield, CT.  The tornado threat translated into a damaging wind threat as these storms formed into a bowing line segment.  Several towns in Northeast Connecticut, especially Willimantic, were affected by the damaging effects of this line.  Many residents lost power, and around 1,500 still remain in the dark as of 12:30AM on Thursday, July 27.  Trees fell in resident's yards, large branches littered the streets, power lines were downed and lying on the roads due to falling tree branches.  Local law enforcement closed several streets due to these hazards.  Flooding in some areas was also an issue, namely around the Frog Bridge on the east side of town.  The great news for those cleaning up from the storms on Wednesday?  Picture perfect weather!

Wednesday looks to be a fabulous weather day, now that the cold front will have passed to the south of New England.  It will be a very comfortable day as humidity levels will have dropped.  Enjoy it because the humidity returns on Thursday.  We may be looking at another thunderstorm threat Friday with the next approaching cold front.

Stay tuned!

-Alex Avalos

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Your latest Weather Forecast

Good Sunday Afternoon!

Finally!  After some record heat took place across the Northeast Wednesday through Saturday, we are finally taking a break on this Sunday afternoon.  We'll have a look at some record breaking and record tying temperatures which were set across the region, especially during the afternoon on Friday, July 22.

Newark, NJ: Record high of 108 (All time high record, previously 105 set on August 5, 2001. Also eclipses record of 101 set back on July 22, 1957).

Central Park, NY: Record high of 104 (This eclipses old record high of 101 set back on July 22, 1957).

LaGuardia Airport, NY: Record high of 104 (This eclipses old record high of 101 set back on July 22, 1998).

Bridgeport, CT: Record high of 103 (Ties all time high record of 103, previously set back on July 22, 1957).

While Friday was a scorcher (as was much of the week), we have begun to see conditions cool down during the latter half of the weekend into the middle part of this upcoming week.  While Southern New England has been dealing with mostly unsettled conditions (though not a washout) on this Sunday, it appears that the threat for both showers and thunderstorms will renew itself through the first half of the work week in response to an approaching cold front.  On Monday, instability ahead of this cold front looks to be marginal at best, with the greatest instability present across Vermont, Western Massachusetts to the eastern slopes of the Berkshires, and far northern areas of the Litchfield Hills in Connecticut.  While the threat of thunderstorms will exist across all of New England, I think the greatest threat will exist in areas with better instability.  Marginal instability suggests that these storms will have difficulty reaching severe levels, but it is not entirely out of the question.  An atmosphere rich in moisture signals that any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of heavy amounts of rain.  Watch this closely in poor drainage areas.

We can expect the same scenario to unfold on Tuesday as Monday.  Heavy downpours should be a lesser threat on Tuesday by comparison.  Greatest threat of showers and thunderstorms should exist across Northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Northwest Maine.  Once again, the threat for severe storms appears marginal at best.  Anything that develops will be isolated in nature.    

Wednesday looks to be the pick of the first half of the work week!  After sweating out the oppressive humidity this past Wednesday, Thursday & Friday, the comfort level will rise this upcoming Wednesday!  Temperatures will be delightful, generally in the mid 70's-low 80's range north to south.  Most importantly, most of New England will remain dry (with the threat for a shower or two across Northern VT, NH & ME).  Warmer and more humid conditions return for the end of the week, along with an increased thunderstorm threat as another cold front approaches New England.  Stay tuned for more!         

-Alex Avalos

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Increasing Severe Weather Potential for Monday Afternoon

Good Sunday Morning everyone.

Before we dive into the severe weather threat for Monday, I just want to quickly mention that Air Quality Alerts are in effect for Coastal Connecticut and most of Rhode Island (excluding Providence County) until 10:00PM this evening. Should you have a respiratory condition, please consider postponing any strenuous activity you plan to undertake outside this afternoon.

Looks like we will sneak in one more nice fairly nice day (humidity increasing) before we see a fairly active weather day tomorrow.  The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms looks to develop Monday afternoon.  As of right now, the primary threats look to be in the form of damaging winds and heavy rain.  I mentioned the threat of an isolated/brief tornado in my post last night.  I am a bit concerned, after watching this mornings model runs roll in, that this threat looks to be higher for tomorrow, as the threat of supercell development has become more apparent. 

All of New England needs to monitor this severe weather threat very closely.  The greatest threat region looks to exist across Southern New England, where greater surface heating will likely be realized, in addition to later timing of the cold front.  Regardless of location, however, this threat is going to be dependent on cloud cover tomorrow.  With a lack of clouds tomorrow, the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize through the morning hours and into the afternoon.  I will be monitoring trends throughout the day today, stay tuned for possible updates later today!

-Alex Avalos

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Wild Week of Weather Ahead

Well, it is that time of year again.  July is supposed to be a month of hot temperatures.  It looks like New England will be in store for an impending heat wave by the time Wednesday rolls around.  Before we can look forward to this though, we have to get through a potentially unsettled Monday. 

We will see one more nice day on Sunday before the threat for thunderstorms and potentially significant heat arrives from Monday onward.  It appears at this time, we will see a cold front drop southeast out of southern Quebec on Monday morning.  This will serve as a trigger for shower and thunderstorm development Monday afternoon.  There is the concern for thunderstorms to reach severe levels on Monday.  The possibility exists for storms to produce large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and even an isolated tornado Monday afternoon and possibly into the evening.  The region of greatest concern looks to include all of New England (I think risk increases with southward extent due to the timing of the front), as well as New York for points north of New York City.  This cold front should drop south of New England into the Mid-Atlantic overnight Tuesday, posing no severe threat to the region on Tuesday.

The severe weather threat on Monday takes a back seat to what's in store for Wednesday and beyond.  Potentially the most potent heat we have seen all summer will invade New England for the second half of the week into the weekend.  Unfortunately, we will not receive any breaks in the humidity department.  Humidity levels will become unbearable, especially from Thursday onward.  This early in the week, I would not be entirely surprised to see minimum heat advisory criteria heat overtake a large portion of the region, particularly inland Southern New England as temperatures soar into the 90's.  With this heat, air quality will rapidly deteriorate, meaning any person with a respiratory condition may want to consider postponing any strenuous outdoor activities they may have already planned.  I will continue to monitor this potential as we move closer to Wednesday.

Check back later for more updates!

-Alex Avalos

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Monday-Tuesday Heat & Tuesday Thunderstorm Threat

Good Sunday Evening everybody!

I hope everybody was able to enjoy this absolutely gorgeous weekend.  I apologize for the lack of updates over the past several days.  With that said, let's take a look at what's in store for the beginning of your upcoming work week.

One observation that should be noted as I write this is the fact that dew points are actually a bit higher at this hour than what was in the forecast.  I will be keeping an eye on this to see if this trend continues on both Monday and Tuesday.

The dominant headline for both Monday and Tuesday undoubtedly has to do with the increasing heat and humidity.  We will get in one more somewhat decent night of sleeping before we see the humidity levels begin to markedly increase after sunrise on Monday morning.  An area of high pressure will dominate New England on Monday, and I fully expect that several locations across Southern New England will reach and pass 90 degrees during the afternoon.  Areas further north across Northern New England will experience cooler temperatures generally in the 80s, however, humidity here will also be on the rise for Monday.  For the most part, Monday looks to be a dry day.  Due to the increased humidity levels and very warm temperatures, we will see some destabilization of the atmosphere Monday afternoon.  With this in mind, I expect that mainly western locations of New England see the possibility of a late afternoon thunderstorm or two.  I do not see a widespread thunderstorm event, as we lack the needed "spark" in the atmosphere to generate anything organized.  This looks to occur on Tuesday.

We will continue to see very hot and oppressively humid conditions during the day on Tuesday.  In fact, depending on the amount of cloud cover that exists, we could end the day warmer than we did on Monday!  With very high humidity levels, we could see Heat Indices approach 100 degrees, particularly closer to the New York City region.  Tuesday, without question also looks to be the most active day over the next two days and even the entire week.  A cold front will begin to approach from the Great Lakes region overnight Tuesday.  With this in mind, any thunderstorm which develops Tuesday will do so in an atmosphere very rich in moisture.  Instability levels could really ramp up during the afternoon.  The difference Tuesday versus Monday has to do with the fact that the cold front will be much closer to New England, and hence we will have the needed "spark" to touch off some organized thunderstorm development.  I am concerned about the potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon as this cold front inches closer to New England.  It appears that the greatest threats from these storms will be in the form of large hail, damaging winds, as well as very heavy rain. 

The forecasting of this severe weather potential on Tuesday has become tricky at best.  Some of the models are in disagreement with each other on the timing of the approaching cold front.  It appears at this time that a pre-frontal trough could develop out ahead of the front overnight Monday in New York.  This could pose a threat for showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday in New England.  With this in mind, this pre-frontal trough may make its approach to New England during the morning commute.  As a result, the threat for showers and thunderstorms would exist Tuesday morning.  If this were to be the case, then the atmosphere would experience more difficulty destabilizing before the front approaches New England after peak heating hours, and hence, the overall severe weather potential would decrease.  If this pre-frontal trough were to slow its progression down, then this would (provided we do not see clouds move in due to Monday night thunderstorms) allow the atmosphere to become moderately to very unstable during the afternoon.  This would increase the potential for severe thunderstorm development into an organized line, with the greatest threat being damaging winds.  Tornado potential does not appear that great, but this can never be completely ruled out in a severe weather episode.

The severe weather threat should diminish after dark Tuesday, but the front may not completely clear New England until Wednesday morning.  This would most likely result in a rather muggy Tuesday night for Southeastern CT, Southern RI and Southeastern MA.

We are in for a very beautiful stretch of summer-like weather once we get through Tuesday.  Very dry weather and very low humidity will dominate!     

Check back tomorrow for more updates!

-Alex Avalos

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Warm & Humid Mid-Week, Thunderstorm Threat Follows

Finally!  I think it is safe to say that summer has arrived in New England!  I hope everyone was able to enjoy the weather on our Tuesday.  This day was my pick of the week.  The weather is about to change even more on Wednesday and Thursday.  After a very comfortable Tuesday, one in which blue skies prevailed with very little evidence of the haze one sees on a typical summer day, the weather is about to change.  The biggest headlines can be traced to increasing humidity on Wednesday, and an increase in the thunderstorm threat Wednesday through Thursday afternoon.     

Humidity levels will begin to noticeably increase overnight tonight.  In fact, some areas may see patchy fog tomorrow morning, with Downeast Maine being the most likely location.  The combination of high humidity and lack of cloud cover will set the stage for a very hot and humid Wednesday.  The "Knowledge Corridor" portion of the Connecticut River Valley appears most likely to see various locations reach and pass the 90 degree mark during the day.  Temperatures farther north will be more comfortable generally in the 80's.

The weather should remain dry during the daytime hours in Southern New England on Wednesday.  The same cannot be said for Northern New England.  A cold front looks to move through this region during the afternoon.  A threat for showers and thunderstorms will rapidly increase.  In fact, the atmosphere may become moderately unstable, possibly supporting strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds.  Given abundant moisture, heavy rain will be a threat with any storm that can develop.  This threat is dependent on cold frontal timing, and whether or not enough surface heating can take place before peak heating hours of the day.  The greatest threat looks to exist across Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont during the afternoon.  The severe threat may then continue into Massachusetts during the early evening hours, then into Connecticut and possibly Rhode Island after dark.  Because we will have lost daytime heating and hence instability, thunderstorms will likely lose their punch before reaching southernmost areas.

To see Wednesday's severe weather threat, check out this outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day2otlk_20110705_1730.html


Thursday continues warm and humid, with the front expected to move through Southern New England during the afternoon.  Again, the atmosphere could become unstable enough to support the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of gusty winds, large hail and heavy downpours.  This will all depend on the timing of the cold front.

The models have varied on the timing of the passage of this impending cold front and its impact on Southern New England.

1.) One model wants to slowly drag the cold front across Southern New England on Thursday, stalling it out across this same area.
  • This would keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Southern New England, some of which could become severe, with gusty winds, large hail, and heavy rain.  Thursday would remain fairly humid out ahead of the front. 
2.) Another model wants to scoot the front through overnight Wednesday, clearing the area by Thursday morning, keeping the day mostly settled.
  • Aside from a possible thunderstorm early in the day, most of Thursday would actually turn out to be dry and pleasant, with a slight decrease in humidity.  Temperatures could still threaten the 90 degree mark, especially in the Connecticut River Valley.

Pending that Scenario #1 ensues, a thunderstorm threat may exist once again on Friday.  While heavy downpours would be possible in this tropical airmass, regardless of how Friday shapes up, it should not be a washout.  Pending that Scenario # 2 ensues, Friday should shape up to be another great weather day!  The first half of the weekend in the very least is shaping up to be fantastic as well!

Keeping an eye on the Tropics, one model shows an area of developing low pressure off the coast of Florida, scooting up the eastern seaboard Thursday and Friday.  The cold front which will pass through Thursday, coupled with a Bermuda High to our east will create a conveyor belt-like setup and carry this area of enhanced tropical moisture out to sea, not carrying any effect into New England this weekend.

-Alex Avalos

Sunday, July 3, 2011

Holiday Weather, Mid-Week Heat, Thunderstorm Threat and more!

Gloomy is probably the best word to describe New England's weather on this Sunday.  While not all areas received rain today, most were socked in under the clouds all day with fairly humid conditions.  Most of those who did see rain today likely saw some torrential downpours and possibly even a rumble or two of thunder.  Even with this being the case, most areas have completely dried out so fireworks plans should go on schedule.  I am more optimistic about Monday's weather than I was about today's.  However, a slow moving cold front will likely maintain a threat of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Southern and Eastern New England on Monday.

The atmosphere out ahead of this cold front is very moist, meaning any thunderstorm that is able to develop on Monday will be capable of producing torrential downpours.  I do think that with the passing cold front, a severe thunderstorm or two will be possible in areas out ahead of it, with torrential downpours and gusty winds likely being the primary hazards.  The areas I see as most favorable for a severe storm include Eastern CT, Eastern MA, Southwestern ME, Southeastern NH & RI, as the cold front will pass east of these areas later Monday.  The good news, this will not be a widespread threat as we do not see the needed support in the upper levels of the atmosphere for a widespread severe weather event, such as what some of us saw on June 1 and many of us on June 9.  Another story regarding Monday - it will be a bit on the warm side.  This looks to be the case mainly in Southern New England, across inland locations, and cooler on the coast - but not by significant proportions.  A 90 degree reading or two is possible on the Fourth.  I expect widespread mid-upper 80's to be the norm in the south on Monday, with upper 70's and low 80's further north.  It will also be rather humid, until the cold front passes.  This will be a temporary relief from the humidity on Tuesday, before another cold front moves ever closer to our region, causing another rise in the humidity to set the stage for more thunderstorms by weeks end.

While the oppressive humidity should take a one day hiatus before returning on Wednesday, the summer like temperatures should stick with us for most of if not all week.  While it will still be on the warm side with temperatures possibly rising close to 90, Tuesday is my pick of the week.  The cold front will have passed and humidity levels will be down.  The next warm front will lift to our north on Wednesday, and this will be the focus for the increase in the humidity levels during the day.  I do think that Wednesday will be dry, with the possibility of a pop up thunderstorm.  Temperatures could linger in the 90's for many in Southern New England, a bit more comfortable further north in the 80's.

I see Thursday as the day for potential widespread thunderstorm development.  A cold front will exit out of the Great Lakes Region overnight Wednesday into Thursday, placing New England in the battle zone for thunderstorm potential.  The atmosphere could become quite unstable Thursday afternoon given the fact that it will be very humid.  The only caveat to this potential is the possibility of cloud cover on Thursday morning, and these chances may increase with northward extent.  As of right now I do think the potential for severe weather could very well exist Thursday afternoon across New England.  While this threat remains four days out, and nothing is definite, keep this potential in mind should you be planning outdoor activities for Thursday afternoon.  I will update this situation later in the week if/when a threat becomes more apparent.

Temperatures do cool off slightly on Friday and Saturday, but more importantly, the humidity levels will decrease once again!  Friday should shape up to be a decent weather day, but this would be entirely dependent on how soon/late the next cold front passes to the east of New England.  Regardless, at this point the first half of the weekend looks spectacular, as humidity should decrease behind the front.  More importantly, it looks dry!

Stay tuned throughout this week for more on this weeks weather headlines!

-Alex Avalos